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← The MonexusOpinion

A $460 billion wobble and a one-word tell: the US-Iran deal is leaking in public

A leaked draft, a presidential denial, and a half-trillion-dollar market rout in five minutes. The US-Iran deal isn't collapsing — it was never fully built.

By Monexus Staff Writer·mena·1-minute read·12 Jun 2026·Live on the wire ↗

A leaked draft, a presidential denial, and a half-trillion-dollar market rout in five minutes. @FarsNewsInt · Telegram

Desk note: Monexus treated the $460 billion figure as a directional signal sourced to Mehr News rather than a precise statistic, and foregrounded Polymarket's contract as the cleanest live read on deal probability. The piece leads with the market reaction because the diplomatic substance is, at this hour, less verifiable than the price action.