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The Polymarket Iran File: Why the Odds Are Moving and What the Tape Is Telling Us
A prediction market has put a 52% probability on a US-Iran permanent deal by month-end. The official readout is far less settled than the implied odds suggest.
Desk note: Monexus has not editorialised on whether a deal should be struck. The 52% Polymarket figure is treated here as a market signal, not a policy endorsement. Wire reporting on the negotiations is being monitored for the technical terms to surface.
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